Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
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Key Features:
- This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions.
- It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors.
- It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history.
- It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history.
- It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
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Dr Brennen Fagan is a postdoctoral research associate supported by the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity and the Department of Mathematics at the University of York. He received his PhD in Mathematics, working with the York Historical Warfare Analysis Group to better understand human conflict by examining and modelling historical war data, and now studies the mathematics of biodiversity change.
Dr Ian Horwood is a historian at York St John University, where he is Senior Lecturer. His principal interests are in US military history, airpower history and the wars in Indochina. Dr Horwood received his PhD in History from the University of Leeds.
Professor Niall MacKay is a mathematician and theoretical physicist at the University of York. He has interests in military history, operations research and combat modelling. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Durham University.
Dr Christopher Price is Senior Lecturer in History at York St John University. His main areas of interest are political, economic and military history in the twentieth century, especially British and US history in the period surrounding the Great Depression, the two World Wars and the Cold War. He received his PhD in History from the University of York.
Professor Andrew James (Jamie) Wood is a mathematician and systems biologist at the University of York. He specializes in the simulation and analysis of complex systems, and has interests across a range of modern international history and the analysis of warfare. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Imperial College London.
