Overconfidence - A Matter of Education?
nën 2012 · GRIN Verlag
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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1, University of Applied Sciences Kufstein Tirol, language: English, abstract: This work examines the relationship between education and excessive confidence in situations of uncertainty. For this purpose, a questionnaire with 10 pseudo general knowledge questions was designed, whereby their degree of difficulty exceeds the knowledge of an average student by far. It was investigated whether subjects (N = 535) would acknowledge this condition and its associated nescience. If that is the case, they will answer the 10 questions within an extremely wide confidence interval in order to meet the predefined 90% accuracy requirement. The focus of investigation was in Southern Germany, as the school system regularly receives top marks in national educational rankings. The data analysis resulted in the stochastic proof that there are significant differences between the various educational institutions in accuracy and overconfidence. In addition to the empirical study the paper defines the distortion of judgment and identifies its relevant factors. It gives a detailed explanation of the German education system and states the criticism of the concept of overconfidence. The paper concludes with a recommendation for action and ventures a look ahead. ------------------------ Diese Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Bildung und übermäßigem Selbstvertrauen in Situationen von Ungewissheit. Dazu wurde ein Fragebogen mit 10 Quasi-Allgemeinwissensfragen entwickelt, wobei deren Schwierigkeitsgrad das Wissen eines durchschnittlichen Schülers bei Weitem übersteigt. Es wurde untersucht, ob die Probanden (N=535) diesen Zustand und ihre damit verbundene Unwissenheit anerkennen und zur Beantwortung der 10 Fragen, innerhalb eines vorgegebenen 90% Konfidenzintervalls, jenen Vertrauensbereich möglichst weit wählen, um die Anforderungen zu erfüllen. Der Fokus der Untersuchung lag in Süddeutschland, da das dortige Schulsystem regelmäßig Bestnoten im nationalen Bildungsvergleich erhält. Die Datenauswertung resultiert in der Erbringung des stochastischen Beweises, dass es zwischen den Bildungseinrichtungen einen signifikanten Unterschied beim Schätzverhalten und der damit verbundenen Vertrauens-Hypertrophie gibt. Neben der empirischen Untersuchung definiert die Arbeit den Begriff des übermäßigen Selbstvertrauens und benennt die relevanten Einflussfaktoren. Das deutsche Bildungssystem wird dabei ebenso beleuchtet, wie die Kritik am Konzept der Heuristik. Die Abhandlung endet mit einer Handlungsempfehlung und einem Ausblick in die Zukunft.
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