Managing Credit Bubbles
ΠΈΡΠ½Ρ 2014β―Π³. Β· International Monetary Fund
ΠΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π°
51
ΠΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ
reportΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ·ΡΠ²Ρ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ. ΠΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΠ±Π½Π΅Π΅β¦
ΠΠ± ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π΅
We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by expectations of future profits (i.e. fundamental collateral), but instead by expectations of future credit (i.e. bubbly collateral). During a credit bubble, there is more credit available for entrepreneurs: this is the crowding-in effect. But entrepreneurs must also use some of this credit to cancel past credit: this is the crowding-out effect. There is an "optimal" bubble size that trades off these two effects and maximizes long-run output and consumption. The βequilibriumβ bubble size depends on investor sentiment, however, and it typically does not coincide with the βoptimalβ bubble size. This provides a new rationale for macroprudential policy. A lender of last resort can replicate the βoptimalβ bubble by taxing credit when the "equilibrium" bubble is too high, and subsidizing credit when the βequilibriumβ bubble is too low. This leaning-against-the-wind policy maximizes output and consumption. Moreover, the same conditions that make this policy desirable guarantee that a lender of last resort has the resources to implement it.
ΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Ρ
ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡ Ρ Π½Π°ΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΈΠΌ ΠΌΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ.
ΠΠ΄Π΅ ΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³ΠΈ
Π‘ΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡΠΎΠ½Ρ ΠΈ ΠΏΠ»Π°Π½ΡΠ΅ΡΡ
Π£ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Google Play ΠΠ½ΠΈΠ³ΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ Android ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ iPad/iPhone. ΠΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠΈΠ½Ρ
ΡΠΎΠ½ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Ρ Π²Π°ΡΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΊΠΊΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠΌ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈ, ΠΈ Π²Ρ ΡΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΡ Π»ΡΠ±ΠΈΠΌΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³ΠΈ ΠΎΠ½Π»Π°ΠΉΠ½ ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ»Π°ΠΉΠ½ Π³Π΄Π΅ ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎ.
ΠΠΎΡΡΠ±ΡΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ Π½Π°ΡΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡ
Π‘Π»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΡΠ΅ Π°ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠΎΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³ΠΈ ΠΈΠ· Google Play Π² Π²Π΅Π±-Π±ΡΠ°ΡΠ·Π΅ΡΠ΅ Π½Π° ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅.
Π£ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²Π° Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³
Π§ΡΠΎΠ±Ρ ΠΎΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Ρ Π½Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²Π΅ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ, ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ Kobo, ΡΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΉΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ» ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ±Π°Π²ΡΡΠ΅ Π΅Π³ΠΎ Π½Π° ΡΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΎ. ΠΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΠ±Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ Π½Π°ΠΉΡΠΈ Π² Π‘ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅.
