Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Daniel Kahneman · Olivier Sibony · Cass R. Sunstein
maj 2021 · Penguin Random House Audio · Treguar nga Jonathan Todd Ross
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From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Cover design © HarperCollins Publishers 2021
* This audiobook contains a downloadable PDF which includes figures from the book.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Cover design © HarperCollins Publishers 2021
* This audiobook contains a downloadable PDF which includes figures from the book.
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DANIEL KAHNEMAN is the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology at Princeton University, and professor of public affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He is the winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his pioneering work integrating insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.
OLIVIER SIBONY is a professor, writer, and advisor specializing in the quality of strategic thinking and the design of decision processes. He teaches strategy, decision making, and problem solving at HEC Paris. He is also an associate fellow of Saïd Business School in Oxford University. Previously, he spent twenty-five years with McKinsey & Company in France and in the US, where he was senior partner, co-leader of the Global Strategy Practice and of the European Consumer Sector, and member of the Global Partner Review Committee.
CASS R. SUNSTEIN is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard. From 2009 to 2012, he was administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. From 2013 to 2014, he served on President Obama's Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technologies.
OLIVIER SIBONY is a professor, writer, and advisor specializing in the quality of strategic thinking and the design of decision processes. He teaches strategy, decision making, and problem solving at HEC Paris. He is also an associate fellow of Saïd Business School in Oxford University. Previously, he spent twenty-five years with McKinsey & Company in France and in the US, where he was senior partner, co-leader of the Global Strategy Practice and of the European Consumer Sector, and member of the Global Partner Review Committee.
CASS R. SUNSTEIN is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard. From 2009 to 2012, he was administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. From 2013 to 2014, he served on President Obama's Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technologies.
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